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By Riad Kahwaji, CEO, INEGMA
January 19, 2010
Source: Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA)
The Iranian Revolution
The Iranian Islamic Revolution is facing today its toughest internal challenge yet, and even if it manages to overcome it, its foundations have been strongly shaken. The frequent riots and demonstrations by reformist and opposition members across the capital Tehran and other major Iranian cities since the June 2009 presidential elections have turned more violent with time and demands of reformist leaders to upturn the results of the elections and oust President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad are gradually being replaced by louder calls of opposition marchers on the streets calling for the downfall of the regime. The internal power struggle has been taking place against the backdrop of a showdown between Tehran and the international community over Iran’s controversial nuclear program. Iran’s refusal to halt uranium enrichment could subject it to another round of international sanctions and would increase risks of military confrontation with Israel and the United States. Regional ethno-sectarian tension (Sunni-Shiite and Arab-Persian) has been on the rise over the past few years as a result of growing Iranian roles in Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Yemen and other places.
The ongoing internal and external developments facing the Iranian Islamic Revolution could very much be the natural course almost all revolutions experienced over the past few centuries. Successful revolutions have historically came to an end either through internal movements – usually known as correctional (or reformist) movements – or through wars with external powers. The course of evolution for each revolution is dependent on how the leadership can keep up with the expectations and aspirations of the public. After all, revolutions can only be carried out and succeed with the full involvement of the masses, and their (revolutions) survival is dependent on the continued support of the masses. Revolutions must not be mixed up with coup d’etats that is carried out by military commanders who often become dictators. In revolutions it is the people that topple the government in aspiration of a better ruling system drawn by a certain ideology presented by the leader or leaders of the revolutionary movement. Once in power, the leadership faces reality with the big problem in fulfilling the high expectations of the masses and often finds the best way to maintain public support is through ideologically-based causes or wars. In some cases revolutionary leaders shift the focus from the wide and big ideological expectations of creating a perfect world to the much narrower and more focused needs of the society itself.
The Chinese Example
A good example of a revolution that witnessed a successful internal movement that adjusted its ideology and shifted its focus on the inside was the Chinese Maoist Revolution. During the years of rule of the father of the Chinese revolution Chairman Mao Zedong, the Red Guards rejected all forms of liberalism and capitalism and exported the Maoist version of communism to neighboring Asian states as well as Europe and were often directly and indirectly involved in wars with the West in North Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia. China saw itself as a base for all Asian communists in their fight against the West. But after Mao’s death the Chinese leadership witnessed an internal power struggle that brought Chairman Deng Xiaoping into power in 1978. With the takeover of Deng, the relationship between China and other communist Asian states drifted apart because the focus of the revolution turned inward. Deng’s financial aims were solely for China, and were seen by many as a departure from Maoism. Deng kept people happy as he was able to improve the situation of most Chinese people. He re-established some form of capitalism, but kept hold on the authoritarian state. Deng’s movement helped China over the last three decades to prosper and embrace globalization and multiply the country’s economic power and increase its growth considerably. As a consequence, China today is one of the fastest growing global super powers with better future prospects than other Western powers.
The French Case
Other revolutions, like the French Revolution, its internal correctional movement went into the opposite extreme by seeking global expansion attempting to export the ideology and spread hegemony of France over Europe and beyond. The movement took place 10 years after the revolution and was led by Napoleon Bonaparte when he overthrew the Directorate in 1799 and established the Consulate where he was appointed as Consul for Life. In 1804 the French Senate crowned Napoleon Emperor, which undermined all the major achievements of the revolution like freedom and democracy because the legislature became redundant. However, the strong sense of nationalism and pride Napoleon managed to inject within the French masses through the abolition of feudalism and scoring victories on the battlefields of Europe have enabled him to establish monopoly on the leadership of the revolution and steer it his way. Conquering neighboring European Kingdoms, meddling with their internal affairs, overthrowing monarchies and abolishing feudal systems have earned France enemies everywhere on the continent. Years of wars took their toll of the economy as well as the military and stripped France of allies in Europe. This went on until Napoleon was defeated by the British in Waterloo in 1815 and exiled to Saint Helena Island where he died few years later. Although the French revolution had a great impact on the future political system of Europe and the world in the nineteenth century, nevertheless it technically ended with France partially occupied by the Prussians and monarchy reinstated in the country and the economy in ruins.
Iran Today
Iran nowadays seems to stand at a cross-road as the internal struggle has taken on more a violent and open form. The two sides (conservatives and reformists) do not appear able to coexist anymore even when one side is almost fully purged from public offices. The so-called reformists led by former presidents Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammed Khatami and ex-premier Meir Hussein Mousawi and former House Speaker Mohammed Mehdy Karroubi are known staunch supporters of the Islamic Revolution and do not call for the downfall of the existing regime. However, they dispute the results of the last elections and favor internal reforms whereby more attention is paid to socio-economic conditions and lesser restrictions are imposed on freedom of people and a more subtle approach is adopted in Iran’s foreign policy. On the other hand the conservative camp is becoming more militarized as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), that already has virtual control over security and military affairs, is taking control directly and indirectly over government institutions and economic establishments. As the leadership becomes less tolerant of the opposition and uses harsh deterrent measures against the reformists, the bolder the opposition movement seems to get. There appears to be a growing anti-regime movement that could be benefiting from reformists losing hope of the Islamic Republic regime and now seeking its collapse. If the existing reformist leaders are either killed or jailed there would be a strong possibility that a new young and radical leadership would emerge that would advocate the downfall of the regime instead of reforming it.
The Iranian Islamic Revolution is now witnessing its toughest challenge since its inception. Will it slide towards internal chaos and collapse, or towards military confrontation with the West or self-repair itself in a Chinese-model correctional movement? One should not forget the external momentum affecting Iran: The controversial nuclear program and the possibilities of tougher economic sanctions and war. The external pressure is taking its toll on Iran in so many ways although it has not been enough to force Tehran to quit its policies (nuclear program and supporting movement regarded as terrorist). The militarization of the regime and sponsoring so many armed movements in the region that are engaged in proxy wars are draining the Iranian treasury at a harsh economic time. The threat of war is also compelling Iran to spend billions of dollars on its military arsenal. For how long would the Islamic Regime be able to withstand pressures from outside and from within is just a matter of time. But the question here is, would major regional and international players have the patience to see the regime in Tehran crumble or succumb to pressure and seek a compromise? Will the Iranian Islamic Revolution follow the course of the Chinese model or the French model or set a whole new historical precedent in the long line of revolutions the world has seen over the past centuries? Some officials in the West are betting that the Islamic regime will not be there five year from now. Other observers expect the internal struggle to drag on for years. But one thing almost all analysts agree on is that major changes are underway in Iran as a result of both internal and external factors, and the regime there will not be as it was before June 2009. Winds of change have hit the Iranian Islamic Revolution.
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