By Mohammad Bazzi

Source:

July 22, 2010

On Monday, the anti-American Shiite cleric met with , who is vying to become ‘s next prime minister after his coalition narrowly won parliamentary elections in March.

It might seem like a minor development in the endless political jockeying over forming a stable government in Iraq. But, in fact, this meeting was a victory for and another setback for the .

As the Iranian regime suppressed internal dissent over the tainted reelection of , it also worked to maintain its influence over Iraq’s Shiite factions. By surviving an internal challenge, the so-called Green Revolution, the Iranian regime has become stronger and more emboldened to engage in adventurism abroad.

Sadr, who is most popular among young, impoverished Shiites, has helped Iran extend its influence over Iraq. He is positioning himself as the kingmaker who may well determine the political fates of Allawi and the current prime minister, , who is fighting to keep his job. Sadr’s meeting with Allawi took place in and was arranged by , another ally of Iran.

Since 2007, Sadr has lived in self-imposed exile in the Iranian holy city of . After the recent parliamentary elections, he began receiving emissaries from Iraqi political factions seeking his support. He has since gravitated toward a new Shiite political alliance that is now four seats shy of a majority in the parliament – and the power to select a prime minister and form a cabinet.

But Sadr’s political ascendance threatens to stoke sectarian tensions in Iraq: His followers were responsible for some of the worst atrocities against Sunnis during the country’s recent civil war. Sadr’s militia, the , unleashed death squads that assassinated Sunnis and drove them out of Shiite neighborhoods.

Already, militants loyal to are seeking to exploit the political maelstrom to yet again destabilize Iraq. On Sunday, more than 50 people were killed in attacks near , including a double suicide bombing that targeted former Sunni insurgents who had switched sides to fight alongside U.S. forces.

As the political stalemate drags on, the continues to draw down its forces to meet ‘s promise to reduce troop levels to 50,000 by the end of August. Secretary of State Clinton recently asked Iraqi leaders to assume a “sense of urgency” in forming a new government, but U.S. officials have little sway over Iraqi groups that are now more concerned about currying favor with Iran.

Sadr’s influence has grown because no single faction was able to dominate the new parliament. Allawi’s list won the largest share with 91 seats, followed by Maliki’s with 89, and the Shiite-led (INA) with 70 seats. (Sadr’s movement won 39 seats, the largest share within the INA.) In early June, Maliki formalized his postelection merger with the INA, giving the two groups 159 seats in the 325-seat legislature.

With Iran’s backing, this new alliance has claimed the right to form a government despite the fact that it was created after the election and is therefore in blatant disregard of the wishes of Iraqi voters. By joining the Shiite alliance, Maliki is trying to outmaneuver Allawi, whose secular coalition attracted strong support among Iraq’s Sunni minority. Such backdoor tactics threaten to once again unleash the sectarian warfare that recently shattered Iraq.

So far, Sadr and his followers are reluctant to support Maliki’s reappointment as prime minister. They blame Maliki for launching a 2008 crackdown by the that devastated Sadr’s militia. In reaching out to Allawi, Sadr was sending a message to Maliki: that he needs to make concessions or else risk breaking up the new Shiite coalition.

“I have a red line against the Americans,” Sadr said in Damascus. That does not bode well for the United States. Whatever deal Sadr eventually strikes, he is sure to demand a large role for his followers in the new government.

That will make it more difficult for to maintain a strong relationship with the Iraqi government after the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Bazzi is an adjunct senior fellow at the .