Where do sheikhs go shopping? Facing the rising threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, they go to weapons shows like the International Defence Exhibition and Conference, where leaders from Cairo to Riyadh are stocking up.

By David Kenner

Source: Foreign Policy

March 12, 2010

Martin Parr/Magnum Photos

It’s no secret that the Middle East is a dangerous neighborhood. And if the bushels of money that rulers of the Gulf states are throwing at their militaries is any indication, it’s not getting any safer.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies report Military Balance 2010, Saudi Arabia’s defense budget grew from $24.9 billion in 2001 to $41.2 billion in 2009, a 65 percent increase. The budget of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) grew a whopping 700 percent, from $1.9 billion to $15.47 billion, in the same time period. Kuwait and Bahrain also dramatically expanded the dollars devoted to security over the last decade; their defense budgets increased 35 percent and 80 percent, respectively.

So why the stockpiling? Well, you’d be spending on defense too if you lived next door to Iran. As Iran makes advances in ballistic missile technology, the Gulf states have invested heavily in missile defense systems. In September 2008, the UAE announced the purchase of the THAAD missile defense system for $7 billion, becoming the first foreign country to take delivery of the U.S.-built system. Raytheon and Lockheed Martin also received a contract to provide the UAE with the Patriot air-defense system.

If you’re a Middle Eastern ruler who needs to fight a war (or at least cultivate the appearance of readiness), weapons exhibitions give you an opportunity to see what instruments of destruction are currently on the open market. The International Defence Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) is the sine qua non of weapons shows in the region. The first conference was held on Feb. 14, 1993, and featured more than 350 companies, representing 34 countries. And IDEX has grown steadily since then. The last exhibition, held in February 2009, included 897 exhibitors from over 50 countries and saw more than 50,000 visitors pass through its halls. The next IDEX is scheduled for Feb. 20 – 24, 2011.

But the conference is not only big business — it is a point of national pride. Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who was greeted by “sash-waving Abu Dhabi schoolchildren,” oversaw the official opening ceremony of the conference, which included military exercises performed by UAE fighter jets, military vehicles, and parachutists. After all, it is a well-known fact that the sheikh with the biggest guns also has … well, the most regional influence.

Rising regional tensions does not mean that Iran is absent from IDEX. Iranian defense firms used to exhibit their weapons at the conference, but that ceased due to the implementation of sanctions and growing estrangement between Iran and the UAE. However, the Iranians are still allowed to show up as buyers of military hardware — and Chinese and Russian firms are more than willing to sell to them.

The term “weapons show” is something of a misnomer. Of course, one can buy tanks, sniper rifles, helicopters, and a bevy of other machines of death. But large portions of military budgets are devoted to the more mundane, logistical equipment needed to fight a war: uniforms, command-and-control systems, and surveillance equipment. In this vein, IDEX 2009 featured a radar system equipped with a remote display, and a virtual small-arms training program that acts as a substitute for shooting ranges. “Militainment” lives: Someone tell P.W. Singer!

You’re not going to find any price tags on the merchandise at most weapons shows. Although a few sales might be completed on the spot, the conference is mostly used for buyers to get a sense of what’s on the market. Sellers, on the other hand, use the conference to boost their international exposure. “If you decided that you had a wonderful new laser that could blow up land mines, you’d like to get this on the Egyptian Army’s list of what they’re going to be spending their budget on in the next five years,” said David Isby, an analyst for Cobham, a defense contractor. “If you pitch them, they’ll say, ‘You’ve got a track record; we’ve seen you before — let’s talk.’”

After the initial schmoozing, the discussion is usually renewed in private. Defense firms use a number of tools to sell their products to inquiring nations. A firm could put on a private demonstration, or it could put the buyer’s military attaché in touch with an official in an allied country who could vouch for the weapon’s effectiveness. “They will say, ‘Oh yes, the U.S. Army has tested this device out, and this is just what you can use,’” said Isby.

Some weapons shows have particular traits that distinguish them from other exhibitions. The Dubai Airshow, for example, tends to focus on aviation products. IDEX had previously enjoyed a reputation for sponsoring some of the most spectacular displays of live-fire exercises. In the 1990s, “the South Africans were showing protected vehicles … and they actually ran these things over a mine at a public exhibit,” said Steven Zaloga, an expert on military technology and the author of the forthcoming Battle of the Bulge. However, the heyday of these explosive exhibitions has passed, largely for financial reasons. The organizers of IDEX charged defense firms large amounts of money to participate in the exhibits, and they decided such displays were no longer worth the expense.

Defense companies come from all over the planet to shop their wares to the Middle Eastern countries. It’s not just the major Western defense firms: Chinese companies in particular have made inroads into the business in recent years. “The last show was by far the biggest in terms of Chinese participation,” noted Zaloga. “I wouldn’t say they’ve become a serious competitor to France, Russia, or the United States, but they’re certainly trying to become one.” Some of the new equipment that China made available for export at IDEX includes a short-range defense system and an amphibious armored personnel carrier.

Wait, what — the Chinese are showing off a new armored amphibious personnel carrier? That’s bound to raise the blood pressure of a few officials in Taiwan. If some Taiwanese representatives showed up at IDEX posing as potential buyers in order to get a sense of their rival’s capabilities, it would not be the first time. “In the good old days at these shows, the Soviet bloc people just vacuumed up as much of this [promotional material] as they could, and then took it home for their intelligence people to evaluate,” noted Isby.

It is not only militaries that come to buy and defense contractors that come to sell. There is another, more subtle, aspect to these events: The firms that build subcomponents to larger systems also show up to sell their wares to defense companies building larger weapons systems. For example, the manufacturer of the new Catherine-XP thermal imager, featuring an infrared viewer “judged to be the best choice for dealing with smoke and dust on the ‘dirty battlefield’” according to Jane’s site devoted to IDEX 2009, may want to show off its material to a company that is designing a new tank model, in the hopes that its subcomponent can be included in the final product.

Like in any sales business, there’s a degree of showmanship at weapons shows. Given the long process that usually accompanies the sale of a large weapons system, it is often difficult to tie the contacts forged at any one exhibition with a specific sale. However, that does not stop defense firms from generating buzz about their products by announcing completed sales during the exhibition. For example, the UAE government announced the purchase of four C-17S and 12 C-130J transport aircraft during the conference, in deals worth a total of $2.8 billion. “The IDEX team strongly encourages this,” said Zaloga. “They like to have a big story every day.”